Home/MLB Home Run Props/July 11, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 11

MLB Home Run Props
July 11, 2026

Data as of 05:04 ET, Jul 11 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 11, 2026 is Matt Olson (ATL) at a 24.4% model home run probability, facing Matthew Liberatore (5.34 ERA) at Busch Stadium.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Matt Olson
 24.4% Matthew Liberatore LHP5.34 ERA Busch Stadium 9.4% 51.9% 92.9
2
Elly De La Cruz
 24% Javier Assad RHP4.15 ERA Great American Ball Park 8.9% 53.1% 94.5
3
Kody Clemens
 22% Ryan Johnson RHP6.99 ERA Target Field 9.1% 46.8% 92.8
4
Kyle Stowers
 22% Tanner Bibee RHP4.06 ERA loanDepot park 7.1% 55% 91.8
5
Ben Rice
 21.7% Miles Mikolas RHP5.78 ERA Nationals Park 9.5% 46.9% 92
6
Jordan Walker
 19% Reynaldo López RHP3.18 ERA Busch Stadium 9.6% 52.2% 94.3
7
Dalton Rushing
 17.8% Brandon Pfaadt RHP4.84 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 7.6% 45.2% 89.7
8
Heliot Ramos
 16.1% Kyle Freeland LHP7.46 ERA Oracle Park 10.8% 50% 92.2
9
Jake Bauers
 16.1% Bubba Chandler RHP4.82 ERA PNC Park 8.1% 53% 92.3
10
Josh Bell
 16% Ryan Johnson RHP6.99 ERA Target Field 7.7% 43.3% 89.9
11
Mickey Moniak
 15.3% Tyler Mahle RHP5.70 ERA Oracle Park 8.8% 42.8% 89.7
12
Kyle Schwarber
 14.2% Casey Mize RHP2.64 ERA Comerica Park 9.7% 53.8% 93.5
13
Wilyer Abreu
 13.7% Freddy Peralta RHP4.68 ERA Citi Field 7.8% 41% 89.9
14
Trevor Larnach
 12.9% Ryan Johnson RHP6.99 ERA Target Field 5% 34.7% 87.3
15
Cal Raleigh
 12.7% Griffin Jax RHP3.60 ERA Tropicana Field 6.4% 33.6% 88.4

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 11, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 11, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 11, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 11, 2026 is Matt Olson (ATL) at a 24.4% model home run probability, facing Matthew Liberatore (5.34 ERA) at Busch Stadium. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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