Home/MLB Home Run Props/July 7, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 7

MLB Home Run Props
July 7, 2026

Data as of 12:15 ET, Jul 7 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 7, 2026 is Jackson Chourio (MIL) at a 23.5% model home run probability, facing Matt Svanson (6.69 ERA) at Busch Stadium.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Jackson Chourio
 23.5% Matt Svanson RHP6.69 ERA Busch Stadium 9.8% 46.8% 92.4
2
Ben Rice
 23% Ian Seymour LHP4.02 ERA Tropicana Field 9.3% 46.3% 91.8
3
Jackson Chourio
 22.9% Hunter Dobbins RHP3.63 ERA Busch Stadium 9.8% 46.8% 92.4
4
Ketel Marte
 22.5% Germán Márquez RHP5.79 ERA Petco Park 9% 46.5% 91.6
5
James Wood
 22.3% Tatsuya Imai RHP6.14 ERA Nationals Park 12.1% 60.1% 95.2
6
Shohei Ohtani
 21.7% Michael Lorenzen RHP6.91 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 9.8% 52.4% 93.6
7
Byron Buxton
 21.2% Joey Cantillo LHP3.86 ERA Target Field 12.5% 47.6% 90.7
8
Kyle Schwarber
 20.8% Andrew Abbott LHP3.88 ERA Great American Ball Park 9.5% 53.9% 93.5
9
Jordan Walker
 20.7% Robert Gasser LHP4.54 ERA Busch Stadium 9.2% 51.2% 93.9
10
Luis García Jr.
 20.5% Tatsuya Imai RHP6.14 ERA Nationals Park 8.4% 47.1% 92.1
11
Willson Contreras
 20.2% Noah Schultz LHP5.86 ERA Rate Field 8.7% 46.4% 90.4
12
Pete Alonso
 19.8% Matthew Boyd LHP5.08 ERA Oriole Park at Camden Yards 7.6% 54.3% 94.1
13
Corbin Carroll
 19.7% Germán Márquez RHP5.79 ERA Petco Park 7.5% 46.7% 91.4
14
Max Muncy
 19.7% Michael Lorenzen RHP6.91 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 8.7% 44.4% 90.2
15
CJ Abrams
 19.7% Tatsuya Imai RHP6.14 ERA Nationals Park 6.7% 41.4% 89.9

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 7, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 7, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 7, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 7, 2026 is Jackson Chourio (MIL) at a 23.5% model home run probability, facing Matt Svanson (6.69 ERA) at Busch Stadium. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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