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MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 5

MLB Home Run Props
July 5, 2026

Data as of 05:02 ET, Jul 5 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 5, 2026 is Hunter Goodman (COL) at a 32.1% model home run probability, facing Tyler Mahle (5.67 ERA) at Coors Field.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Hunter Goodman
 32.1% Tyler Mahle RHP5.67 ERA Coors Field 10.2% 47% 91.5
2
Shea Langeliers
 31% Eury Pérez RHP4.21 ERA Sutter Health Park 10.2% 43.4% 91.4
3
Shohei Ohtani
 30.6% JP Sears LHP6.97 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 9.5% 52.4% 93.6
4
Byron Buxton
 30.3% Ryan Weathers LHP4.08 ERA Yankee Stadium 12.5% 47.3% 90.6
5
Bryce Eldridge
 30.2% Tanner Gordon RHP6.69 ERA Coors Field 7.2% 54.8% 92
6
Rafael Devers
 29.9% Tanner Gordon RHP6.69 ERA Coors Field 7.4% 51.5% 92.3
7
Mickey Moniak
 29.5% Tyler Mahle RHP5.67 ERA Coors Field 9.4% 43.2% 90
8
Max Muncy
 28.8% JP Sears LHP6.97 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 9% 44% 90
9
Mookie Betts
 28.8% JP Sears LHP6.97 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 6.5% 38.2% 90.5
10
Junior Caminero
 28.7% Peter Lambert RHP3.51 ERA Daikin Park 9.1% 52.3% 93.6
11
Willson Contreras
 28% Ryan Johnson RHP7.40 ERA Angel Stadium 8.4% 46.7% 90.5
12
Ben Rice
 27.4% Joe Ryan RHP3.61 ERA Yankee Stadium 9.1% 45.7% 91.7
13
Alec Burleson
 27.3% Javier Assad RHP4.53 ERA Wrigley Field 8.3% 48.2% 91.7
14
Kody Clemens
 26.3% Ryan Weathers LHP4.08 ERA Yankee Stadium 9.1% 46.6% 92.7
15
Pete Alonso
 26.2% Nick Lodolo LHP5.05 ERA Great American Ball Park 7.8% 53.9% 94.1

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 5, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 5, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 5, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 5, 2026 is Hunter Goodman (COL) at a 32.1% model home run probability, facing Tyler Mahle (5.67 ERA) at Coors Field. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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