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MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 4

MLB Home Run Props
July 4, 2026

Data as of 09:12 ET, Jul 4 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 4, 2026 is Kody Clemens (MIN) at a 32.7% model home run probability, facing Brendan Beck (6.00 ERA) at Yankee Stadium.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Kody Clemens
 32.7% Brendan Beck RHP6.00 ERA Yankee Stadium 9.1% 46.6% 92.7
2
Rafael Devers
 32.1% Tomoyuki Sugano RHP4.80 ERA Coors Field 7.4% 51.5% 92.3
3
Jackson Chourio
 31.4% Merrill Kelly RHP5.84 ERA Chase Field 9.4% 46.6% 92.2
4
Hunter Goodman
 30.9% Robbie Ray LHP3.39 ERA Coors Field 10.2% 47% 91.5
5
Ben Rice
 30.7% Zebby Matthews RHP4.15 ERA Yankee Stadium 9.1% 45.7% 91.7
6
Shohei Ohtani
 29.6% Griffin Canning RHP7.09 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 9.5% 52.4% 93.6
7
Josh Bell
 28.7% Brendan Beck RHP6.00 ERA Yankee Stadium 7.4% 42.7% 89.6
8
Luke Raley
 28.2% Shane Bieber RHP6.00 ERA T-Mobile Park 9.9% 48.6% 90.7
9
Dominic Canzone
 27.9% Shane Bieber RHP6.00 ERA T-Mobile Park 10.6% 48.4% 93.1
10
Kyle Stowers
 27.2% Aaron Civale RHP4.92 ERA Sutter Health Park 6.9% 54.1% 91.4
11
Max Muncy
 27% Griffin Canning RHP7.09 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 9% 44% 90
12
Jordan Walker
 26.6% Shota Imanaga LHP4.30 ERA Wrigley Field 9% 51.3% 93.8
13
Jake Bauers
 26.6% Merrill Kelly RHP5.84 ERA Chase Field 7.8% 53.2% 92.6
14
Brooks Lee
 26.3% Brendan Beck RHP6.00 ERA Yankee Stadium 3.3% 30.8% 87.8
15
Trent Grisham
 25.4% Zebby Matthews RHP4.15 ERA Yankee Stadium 8.2% 46% 90.8

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 4, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 4, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 4, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 4, 2026 is Kody Clemens (MIN) at a 32.7% model home run probability, facing Brendan Beck (6.00 ERA) at Yankee Stadium. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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