Home/MLB Home Run Props/June 21, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jun 21

MLB Home Run Props
June 21, 2026

Data as of 05:02 ET, Jun 21 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for June 21, 2026 is Casey Schmitt (SF) at a 33.4% model home run probability, facing Ryan Gusto (7.24 ERA) at loanDepot park.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Casey Schmitt
 33.4% Ryan Gusto RHP7.24 ERA loanDepot park 8.8% 41.7% 89.1
2
Kyle Schwarber
 32.1% David Peterson LHP5.91 ERA Citizens Bank Park 10.2% 51.2% 93.1
3
Brandon Lowe
 31.7% Michael Lorenzen RHP7.13 ERA Coors Field 7.8% 44.6% 90.1
4
Zach Neto
 30.7% Jack Perkins RHP6.15 ERA Sutter Health Park 7.4% 38% 89.9
5
Juan Soto
 29.8% Zack Wheeler RHP2.01 ERA Citizens Bank Park 10.8% 50.3% 93.2
6
Gunnar Henderson
 28.5% Emmet Sheehan RHP4.76 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 6.1% 45.7% 89.5
7
Colson Montgomery
 27.8% Keider Montero RHP3.67 ERA Comerica Park 8.1% 47% 90.1
8
Kazuma Okamoto
 27.6% Shota Imanaga LHP4.26 ERA Wrigley Field 8.3% 49.7% 92
9
Jackson Merrill
 26.1% Nathan Eovaldi RHP4.23 ERA Globe Life Field 7% 46.8% 90.1
10
TJ Rumfield
 26.1% Jared Jones RHP6.23 ERA Coors Field 4.8% 32.7% 84.5
11
Byron Buxton
 26% Jose Cabrera RHP ERA Chase Field 12.3% 48.4% 90.7
12
Michael Harris II
 25.5% Robert Gasser LHP4.88 ERA Truist Park 11.2% 51.5% 92.3
13
Kyle Manzardo
 24.7% Kai-Wei Teng RHP4.31 ERA Daikin Park 6.5% 42.6% 89
14
Ben Rice
 23.5% Chase Burns RHP2.01 ERA Yankee Stadium 10.1% 48.1% 92.2
15
Jarren Duran
 20.8% Logan Gilbert RHP3.43 ERA T-Mobile Park 7.3% 39.7% 89.9

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for June 21, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · June 21, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, June 21, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for June 21, 2026 is Casey Schmitt (SF) at a 33.4% model home run probability, facing Ryan Gusto (7.24 ERA) at loanDepot park. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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