Home/MLB Home Run Props/June 18, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jun 18

MLB Home Run Props
June 18, 2026

Data as of 05:01 ET, Jun 18 · 12 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for June 18, 2026 is Juan Soto (NYM) at a 45.2% model home run probability, facing Aaron Nola (5.86 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Juan Soto
 45.2% Aaron Nola RHP5.86 ERA Citizens Bank Park 11.3% 49.4% 93.1
2
Byron Buxton
 38.1% Jack Leiter RHP4.86 ERA Globe Life Field 12.4% 49.7% 91.1
3
Kyle Schwarber
 29% Sean Manaea LHP4.78 ERA Citizens Bank Park 10.5% 50.6% 93
4
Miguel Vargas
 27.8% Ryan Weathers LHP4.36 ERA Yankee Stadium 9.2% 45.1% 89.9
5
Carter Jensen
 27.6% Matthew Liberatore LHP4.71 ERA Kauffman Stadium 5.6% 42.6% 90.7
6
Jackson Chourio
 26.9% Parker Messick LHP2.68 ERA American Family Field 10.7% 48.2% 92.2
7
Alec Burleson
 24.5% Noah Cameron LHP4.11 ERA Kauffman Stadium 8.8% 47.8% 91.7
8
Ben Rice
 22.9% Sean Burke RHP4.15 ERA Yankee Stadium 9.5% 48% 92
9
Gunnar Henderson
 21.7% Bryan Woo RHP4.28 ERA T-Mobile Park 5.7% 45.3% 89.3
10
Kazuma Okamoto
 20% Sonny Gray RHP3.03 ERA Fenway Park 8.2% 49.7% 91.8
11
Brandon Nimmo
 18.8% Joe Ryan RHP3.17 ERA Globe Life Field 7.6% 52.6% 92.2
12
Casey Schmitt
 16.4% Martín Pérez LHP2.90 ERA Truist Park 9.2% 41.5% 89.2

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for June 18, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · June 18, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, June 18, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for June 18, 2026 is Juan Soto (NYM) at a 45.2% model home run probability, facing Aaron Nola (5.86 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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