MLB Home Run Props
June 13, 2026
BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for June 13, 2026 is James Wood (WSH) at a 42.3% model home run probability, facing Luis Castillo (5.16 ERA) at Nationals Park.
| # | Hitter | P(HR) | Faces |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42.3% | Luis Castillo RHP5.16 ERA | |
| 2 | 41.5% | Noah Cameron LHP3.84 ERA | |
| 3 | 37.1% | Kyle Freeland LHP7.81 ERA | |
| 4 | 36.6% | Matthew Liberatore LHP4.48 ERA | |
| 5 | 35.8% | Randy Vásquez RHP3.63 ERA | |
| 6 | 34% | Aaron Nola RHP5.86 ERA | |
| 7 | 32.8% | Mike Burrows RHP5.77 ERA | |
| 8 | 31.3% | Joey Cantillo LHP4.57 ERA | |
| 9 | 31% | Kevin Gausman RHP3.60 ERA | |
| 10 | 28% | Sean Burke RHP3.88 ERA | |
| 11 | 26.6% | Jacob deGrom RHP3.18 ERA | |
| 12 | 25.1% | Martín Pérez LHP3.02 ERA | |
| 13 | 24% | Lake Bachar RHP2.97 ERA | |
| 14 | 23.7% | Joey Estes RHP ERA | |
| 15 | 21.8% | Griffin Jax RHP4.15 ERA |
P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for June 13, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.
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How These Home Run Picks Are Built
BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.
Home Run Props FAQ · June 13, 2026
Who is the best MLB home run pick today, June 13, 2026?
BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for June 13, 2026 is James Wood (WSH) at a 42.3% model home run probability, facing Luis Castillo (5.16 ERA) at Nationals Park. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet.
How does BetLogic rank home run props?
BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.
Are these MLB home run picks free?
Yes. Every BetLogic tool is completely free, no account, no paywall, no email gate. The live board is at betlogic.ai/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.
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