BetLogic AI · NFL

Who to Start

Week 3 · Matchup Edge

Who's the better start this week? Pick two players and we'll tell you who has the edge.

vs
PM
Patrick Mahomes
QB · KC
This week
vs MIA · @away · 2026-09-27
Projection
17.1 PPR pts · START (Lock)
Matchup · MIA
16.910th-softest vs QB · Green · smash
Season · per game
283 pass yds · 2.5 pTD · 0.5 INT · 63.5% comp · 4.5 car · 20 rush yds · 4.4 YPC · 0% tgt share · 0% air-yd
Market
Impl 25.8 · Total 44.6 · Edge 🔒
JB
Joe Burrow
QB · CIN
This week
vs PIT · @away · 2026-09-27
Projection
17.0 PPR pts · START (Lock)
Matchup · PIT
17.47th-softest vs QB · Green · smash
Season · per game
231 pass yds · 1.5 pTD · 0.5 INT · 68.2% comp · 3 car · 9.5 rush yds · 3.2 YPC · 0% tgt share · 0% air-yd
Market
Impl 24.5 · Total 47.5 · Edge 🔒
This week's edge
Start Patrick Mahomes Slight lean
  • Patrick Mahomes projects 0.1 more PPR points (17.1 vs 17.0).
  • Softer matchup: 10th-easiest draw vs QBs.
  • Better game script: KC implied for 25.8 vs CIN's 24.5.
FAQ
Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow in Week 3?

Start Patrick Mahomes over Joe Burrow in Week 3. Patrick Mahomes projects for 17.1 PPR points to Joe Burrow's 17.0. Patrick Mahomes projects 0.1 more PPR points (17.1 vs 17.0). Softer matchup: 10th-easiest draw vs QBs. Better game script: KC implied for 25.8 vs CIN's 24.5.

PPR projections with matchup (Strength of Schedule) and Vegas game context. Green ▲ marks the better number. Full rankings and the exact betting edge are in BetLogic Pro. Updated 6:50 PM ET.