BetLogic AI · NFL

Who to Start

Week 1 · Matchup Edge

Who's the better start this week? Pick two players and we'll tell you who has the edge.

vs
PM
Patrick Mahomes
QB · KC
This week
vs DEN · @home · 2026-09-14
Projection
13.9 PPR pts · FLEX (Coin-flip)
Matchup · DEN
13.524th-softest vs QB · Red · tough
Season · per game
256 pass yds · 2 pTD · 1 INT · 61.1% comp · 5 car · 30 rush yds · 6 YPC · -1 rec yds
Market
Impl 22.5 · Total 42.5 · Edge 🔒
BM
Baker Mayfield
QB · TB
This week
vs CIN · @away · 2026-09-13
Projection
13.6 PPR pts · FLEX (Coin-flip)
Matchup · CIN
18.13rd-softest vs QB · Green · smash
Season · per game
217 pass yds · 2 pTD · 1 INT · 62.5% comp · 3 car · 22 rush yds · 7.3 YPC
Market
Impl 23.5 · Total 50.5 · Edge 🔒
This week's edge
Start Patrick Mahomes Slight lean
  • Patrick Mahomes projects 0.3 more PPR points (13.9 vs 13.6).
FAQ
Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield in Week 1?

Start Patrick Mahomes over Baker Mayfield in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes projects for 13.9 PPR points to Baker Mayfield's 13.6. Patrick Mahomes projects 0.3 more PPR points (13.9 vs 13.6).

PPR projections with matchup (Strength of Schedule) and Vegas game context. Green ▲ marks the better number. Full rankings and the exact betting edge are in BetLogic Pro. Updated 5:22 PM ET.