BetLogic AI · NFL

Who to Start

Week 1 · Matchup Edge

Who's the better start this week? Pick two players and we'll tell you who has the edge.

vs
DH
Derrick Henry
RB · BAL
This week
vs IND · @away · 2026-09-13
Projection
15.2 PPR pts · START (Lock)
Projected line
103 yds · 0.82 xTD · 36.6% anytime TD · 19 opp/g
Matchup · IND
17.726th-softest vs RB · Red · tough
Season · per game
18 car · 94 rush yds · 5.2 YPC · 1 rec · 9 rec yds · 1 tgt · 100% catch · 9 yd/tgt
Market
Impl 26.5 · Total 49.5 · Edge 🔒
KW
Kyren Williams
RB · LA
This week
vs SF · @home · 2026-09-10
Projection
13.9 PPR pts · START (Lock)
Projected line
91 yds · 0.79 xTD · 35.8% anytime TD · 18 opp/g
Matchup · SF
19.615th-softest vs RB · Neutral
Season · per game
15 car · 74 rush yds · 4.9 YPC · 2 rec · 17 rec yds · 3 tgt · 67% catch · 5.7 yd/tgt
Market
Impl 25.8 · Total 48.6 · Edge 🔒
This week's edge
Start Derrick Henry Lean
  • Derrick Henry projects 1.3 more PPR points (15.2 vs 13.9).
  • Better game script: BAL implied for 26.5 vs LA's 25.8.
FAQ
Should I start Derrick Henry or Kyren Williams in Week 1?

Start Derrick Henry over Kyren Williams in Week 1. Derrick Henry projects for 15.2 PPR points to Kyren Williams's 13.9. Derrick Henry projects 1.3 more PPR points (15.2 vs 13.9). Better game script: BAL implied for 26.5 vs LA's 25.8.

PPR projections with matchup (Strength of Schedule) and Vegas game context. Green ▲ marks the better number. Full rankings and the exact betting edge are in BetLogic Pro. Updated 5:22 PM ET.