Home/MLB Home Run Props/August 1, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Aug 1

MLB Home Run Props
August 1, 2026

Data as of 05:04 ET, Aug 1 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for August 1, 2026 is Matt Olson (ATL) at a 24.5% model home run probability, facing Miles Mikolas (5.65 ERA) at Truist Park.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Matt Olson
 24.5% Miles Mikolas RHP5.65 ERA Truist Park 9.2% 50.2% 92.7
2
Esmerlyn Valdez
 21.7% Andrew Abbott LHP3.85 ERA Great American Ball Park 13.2% 51.2% 92.4
3
Brandon Lowe
 17.1% Andrew Abbott LHP3.85 ERA Great American Ball Park 7.8% 44.9% 91
4
Munetaka Murakami
 16.7% Drew Rasmussen RHP3.07 ERA Tropicana Field 9.7% 59.4% 94.1
5
Max Muncy
 16.7% Payton Tolle LHP3.32 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 8.7% 44.6% 90.3
6
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
 16% Cristopher Sánchez LHP2.73 ERA Oriole Park at Camden Yards 13.9% 40.7% 92
7
Jeremy Peña
 15.4% Jacob deGrom RHP3.67 ERA Daikin Park 4.2% 40.5% 88.3
8
Willson Contreras
 14.7% Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP2.72 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 8.6% 46.6% 90.6
9
Jake Bauers
 14.3% José Soriano RHP3.29 ERA Angel Stadium 8% 53.9% 92.8
10
Sal Stewart
 13.4% Braxton Ashcraft RHP4.05 ERA Great American Ball Park 9.2% 39.9% 90.5
11
Kyle Manzardo
 13.4% Kohl Drake LHP5.00 ERA Progressive Field 6.6% 41% 89.5
12
Bryan Reynolds
 13.3% Andrew Abbott LHP3.85 ERA Great American Ball Park 6.9% 46.9% 90.9
13
Alec Burleson
 12.4% Kevin Gausman RHP4.51 ERA Rogers Centre 8.5% 48.7% 91.7
14
Heriberto Hernández
 12.2% Zac Thornton LHP2.43 ERA Citi Field 8.5% 51.1% 92.2
15
Kyle Stowers
 11.9% Zac Thornton LHP2.43 ERA Citi Field 6.9% 54.9% 92

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for August 1, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · August 1, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, August 1, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for August 1, 2026 is Matt Olson (ATL) at a 24.5% model home run probability, facing Miles Mikolas (5.65 ERA) at Truist Park. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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