Home/MLB Home Run Props/July 31, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 31

MLB Home Run Props
July 31, 2026

Data as of 05:04 ET, Jul 31 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 31, 2026 is Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) at a 24.9% model home run probability, facing Hunter Greene (7.06 ERA) at Great American Ball Park.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Esmerlyn Valdez
 24.9% Hunter Greene RHP7.06 ERA Great American Ball Park 13.5% 53.8% 92.9
2
Jake Bauers
 20.9% Ryan Johnson RHP7.34 ERA Angel Stadium 8% 53.9% 92.8
3
Manny Machado
 19.8% Carson Whisenhunt LHP4.60 ERA Petco Park 7.4% 44% 90.5
4
Jeremy Peña
 18% Nathan Eovaldi RHP4.05 ERA Daikin Park 4.2% 40.5% 88.3
5
Sal Stewart
 16.5% Paul Skenes RHP3.65 ERA Great American Ball Park 9.3% 39.7% 90.5
6
Elly De La Cruz
 15.8% Paul Skenes RHP3.65 ERA Great American Ball Park 9.1% 52.9% 94.3
7
Kyle Stowers
 15.1% Freddy Peralta RHP4.99 ERA Citi Field 6.7% 54.7% 91.9
8
Munetaka Murakami
 15.1% Nick Martinez RHP2.45 ERA Tropicana Field 9.9% 60.1% 94.2
9
Heriberto Hernández
 14.5% Freddy Peralta RHP4.99 ERA Citi Field 8.6% 50.8% 92.2
10
Griffin Conine
 14.1% Freddy Peralta RHP4.99 ERA Citi Field 9.4% 56% 90.9
11
Bryce Harper
 14% Brandon Young RHP3.13 ERA Oriole Park at Camden Yards 7.4% 44.9% 90.2
12
Max Muncy
 13.9% Ranger Suarez LHP3.02 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 8.8% 44.4% 90.3
13
Kyle Manzardo
 12.9% Mitch Bratt LHP6.32 ERA Progressive Field 6.6% 41% 89.5
14
Alec Burleson
 12.4% Dylan Cease RHP2.46 ERA Rogers Centre 8.6% 48.4% 91.6
15
Cal Raleigh
 12.2% Zebby Matthews RHP5.21 ERA T-Mobile Park 6.5% 33.7% 88.4

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 31, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 31, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 31, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 31, 2026 is Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) at a 24.9% model home run probability, facing Hunter Greene (7.06 ERA) at Great American Ball Park. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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