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MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 29

MLB Home Run Props
July 29, 2026

Data as of 05:04 ET, Jul 29 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 29, 2026 is Yordan Alvarez (HOU) at a 24% model home run probability, facing Grayson Rodriguez (8.54 ERA) at Angel Stadium.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Yordan Alvarez
 24% Grayson Rodriguez RHP8.54 ERA Angel Stadium 12.3% 53.4% 94.6
2
Miguel Vargas
 17.9% Cam Schlittler RHP2.07 ERA Rate Field 10.1% 46.8% 90.7
3
Jeremy Peña
 16.8% Grayson Rodriguez RHP8.54 ERA Angel Stadium 3.9% 39.8% 88.2
4
Elly De La Cruz
 16.7% Joey Cantillo LHP4.02 ERA Great American Ball Park 9.2% 52.7% 94.2
5
Max Muncy
 16.6% Emerson Hancock RHP3.16 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 8.7% 44% 90.1
6
Kyle Manzardo
 14.6% Brady Singer RHP4.53 ERA Great American Ball Park 6.3% 40.5% 89.4
7
Munetaka Murakami
 14.6% Cam Schlittler RHP2.07 ERA Rate Field 9.9% 59.7% 94.2
8
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
 14.4% Tarik Skubal LHP2.70 ERA Comerica Park 13.3% 40.9% 91.6
9
Zach Neto
 13.3% Hayden Wesneski RHP ERA Angel Stadium 7.3% 39.9% 89.3
10
Heriberto Hernández
 13.2% Jesús Luzardo LHP3.31 ERA loanDepot park 8.5% 51.7% 92.2
11
Austin Riley
 12.5% Sean Manaea LHP4.52 ERA Citi Field 6.5% 43.8% 90.7
12
Jake Burger
 11.8% Casey Legumina RHP3.95 ERA Tropicana Field 7.1% 46.2% 90
13
Wyatt Langford
 11.3% Casey Legumina RHP3.95 ERA Tropicana Field 6.5% 37.9% 89.3
14
Brandon Marsh
 11% Ryan Gusto RHP4.50 ERA loanDepot park 6.2% 45.7% 89.6
15
Bryan Reynolds
 10.3% Eduardo Rodriguez LHP2.64 ERA PNC Park 6.9% 47% 90.9

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 29, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 29, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 29, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 29, 2026 is Yordan Alvarez (HOU) at a 24% model home run probability, facing Grayson Rodriguez (8.54 ERA) at Angel Stadium. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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