Home/MLB Home Run Props/July 28, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 28

MLB Home Run Props
July 28, 2026

Data as of 05:05 ET, Jul 28 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 28, 2026 is Munetaka Murakami (CWS) at a 24.4% model home run probability, facing Gerrit Cole (3.92 ERA) at Rate Field.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Munetaka Murakami
 24.4% Gerrit Cole RHP3.92 ERA Rate Field 10% 59.2% 94.1
2
Heriberto Hernández
 21.8% Aaron Nola RHP5.82 ERA loanDepot park 8.6% 51.1% 92.2
3
Kyle Stowers
 21.6% Aaron Nola RHP5.82 ERA loanDepot park 6.7% 54.4% 91.8
4
Elly De La Cruz
 19.7% Slade Cecconi RHP4.60 ERA Great American Ball Park 9.2% 52.7% 94.2
5
Max Muncy
 19.3% Luis Castillo RHP4.85 ERA UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium 8.7% 44% 90.1
6
Yordan Alvarez
 17.8% Reid Detmers LHP4.05 ERA Angel Stadium 12.4% 53.4% 94.6
7
Bryce Harper
 16.5% Sandy Alcantara RHP4.01 ERA loanDepot park 7.2% 44.9% 90.1
8
Joe Mack
 16.3% Aaron Nola RHP5.82 ERA loanDepot park 7.1% 39.1% 89.1
9
Jake Burger
 15.6% Griffin Jax RHP3.89 ERA Tropicana Field 6.9% 46.2% 89.9
10
Spencer Torkelson
 15.3% Dean Kremer RHP5.06 ERA Comerica Park 7.8% 42% 89.9
11
Wyatt Langford
 15.1% Griffin Jax RHP3.89 ERA Tropicana Field 6.6% 38% 89.3
12
Bryan Reynolds
 13.7% Brandon Pfaadt RHP4.43 ERA PNC Park 7% 46.8% 90.9
13
Jackson Merrill
 13.7% Michael Lorenzen RHP6.53 ERA Petco Park 7.2% 46.5% 89.8
14
Esmerlyn Valdez
 13.6% Brandon Pfaadt RHP4.43 ERA PNC Park 14% 54.3% 92.9
15
Alec Burleson
 13.5% Colin Rea RHP4.85 ERA Busch Stadium 8.6% 48.1% 91.6

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 28, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 28, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 28, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 28, 2026 is Munetaka Murakami (CWS) at a 24.4% model home run probability, facing Gerrit Cole (3.92 ERA) at Rate Field. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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