Home/MLB Home Run Props/July 27, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 27

MLB Home Run Props
July 27, 2026

Data as of 05:04 ET, Jul 27 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 27, 2026 is Andrés Chaparro (WSH) at a 17.7% model home run probability, facing Max Scherzer (10.23 ERA) at Nationals Park.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Andrés Chaparro
 17.7% Max Scherzer RHP10.23 ERA Nationals Park 8.2% 50% 90.3
2
Luke Raley
 16.4% Kumar Rocker RHP4.13 ERA Globe Life Field 9.7% 47.6% 90.8
3
Daylen Lile
 15.4% Max Scherzer RHP10.23 ERA Nationals Park 6% 35.7% 88.2
4
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
 14.8% Noah Schultz LHP6.04 ERA Rate Field 5.7% 41.8% 90.8
5
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
 14% Keider Montero RHP3.14 ERA Comerica Park 15.4% 47.4% 92.8
6
Yordan Alvarez
 13.4% Walbert Ureña RHP2.78 ERA Angel Stadium 12.5% 53.3% 94.6
7
Joc Pederson
 13.3% George Kirby RHP3.57 ERA Globe Life Field 7.3% 49% 92
8
Riley Greene
 13.2% Kyle Bradish RHP3.49 ERA Comerica Park 9.4% 51.7% 91.7
9
Jake Burger
 13.1% George Kirby RHP3.57 ERA Globe Life Field 7% 46.2% 89.9
10
Wyatt Langford
 13% George Kirby RHP3.57 ERA Globe Life Field 6.7% 38.9% 89.3
11
Munetaka Murakami
 12.5% Max Fried LHP2.97 ERA Rate Field 9.5% 58.5% 94
12
Heriberto Hernández
 11.6% Zack Wheeler RHP2.16 ERA loanDepot park 8.8% 51.5% 92.3
13
Jacob Gonzalez
 10.6% Merrill Kelly RHP5.12 ERA PNC Park 2.6% 42.7% 89.1
14
Joe Mack
 10.2% Zack Wheeler RHP2.16 ERA loanDepot park 7.2% 39.7% 89.2
15
Trea Turner
 10.1% Tyler Phillips RHP3.52 ERA loanDepot park 4.7% 41.6% 88.9

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 27, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 27, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 27, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 27, 2026 is Andrés Chaparro (WSH) at a 17.7% model home run probability, facing Max Scherzer (10.23 ERA) at Nationals Park. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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