Home/MLB Home Run Props/July 22, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 22

MLB Home Run Props
July 22, 2026

Data as of 05:04 ET, Jul 22 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 22, 2026 is Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at a 25.4% model home run probability, facing Aaron Nola (5.68 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Shohei Ohtani
 25.4% Aaron Nola RHP5.68 ERA Citizens Bank Park 10.4% 52.9% 93.4
2
Shea Langeliers
 24.7% Merrill Kelly RHP5.20 ERA Chase Field 10.1% 45.1% 91.9
3
Tyler Soderstrom
 20.9% Merrill Kelly RHP5.20 ERA Chase Field 7.1% 44.8% 90.2
4
Yordan Alvarez
 20% Sandy Alcantara RHP3.89 ERA Daikin Park 12.8% 53.4% 94.7
5
Junior Caminero
 19.5% Braydon Fisher RHP3.65 ERA Rogers Centre 9.5% 51.9% 93.3
6
Trent Grisham
 19.1% Mitch Keller RHP5.14 ERA Yankee Stadium 7.8% 47.8% 91.3
7
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
 19% Mitch Keller RHP5.14 ERA Yankee Stadium 5.9% 41.8% 90.9
8
Trea Turner
 18% Eric Lauer LHP4.81 ERA Citizens Bank Park 4.8% 41% 88.8
9
Tommy Edman
 15.9% Aaron Nola RHP5.68 ERA Citizens Bank Park 6.5% 40.6% 90.4
10
Chase DeLauter
 14% Bailey Ober RHP4.32 ERA Progressive Field 5.1% 45% 91
11
Riley Greene
 13.7% Colin Rea RHP4.74 ERA Wrigley Field 8.6% 50.2% 91.6
12
Ty France
 13.4% Martín Pérez LHP3.54 ERA Truist Park 8.1% 49.7% 92.2
13
Miguel Vargas
 12.9% Tyler Alexander LHP2.79 ERA Globe Life Field 10.3% 46.9% 90.6
14
Alec Burleson
 12.7% Reid Detmers LHP4.16 ERA Angel Stadium 8.7% 48.3% 91.7
15
Travis Bazzana
 12.3% Bailey Ober RHP4.32 ERA Progressive Field 3.3% 36.8% 88.3

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 22, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 22, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 22, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 22, 2026 is Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at a 25.4% model home run probability, facing Aaron Nola (5.68 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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