Home/MLB Home Run Props/July 21, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 21

MLB Home Run Props
July 21, 2026

Data as of 05:05 ET, Jul 21 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 21, 2026 is Kyle Schwarber (PHI) at a 24.1% model home run probability, facing Justin Wrobleski (2.69 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Kyle Schwarber
 24.1% Justin Wrobleski LHP2.69 ERA Citizens Bank Park 9.6% 53.3% 93.5
2
Junior Caminero
 22.5% Kevin Gausman RHP4.33 ERA Rogers Centre 9.1% 51.5% 93.2
3
Esmerlyn Valdez
 19.2% Will Warren RHP4.03 ERA Yankee Stadium 14.4% 54.8% 92.9
4
Shea Langeliers
 18.3% Kohl Drake LHP ERA Chase Field 10.3% 44.9% 91.9
5
Trent Grisham
 18.3% Bubba Chandler RHP4.77 ERA Yankee Stadium 7.9% 47.5% 91.2
6
Shohei Ohtani
 17.5% Zack Wheeler RHP2.13 ERA Citizens Bank Park 10.5% 52.9% 93.4
7
Daylen Lile
 17.3% Michael Lorenzen RHP6.22 ERA Coors Field 5.8% 35.5% 88.1
8
Miguel Vargas
 15.8% Kumar Rocker RHP4.40 ERA Globe Life Field 10.4% 46.9% 90.5
9
Nolan Arenado
 14.4% Jack Perkins RHP6.87 ERA Chase Field 5% 33.5% 85.5
10
Ty France
 14.2% Reynaldo López RHP3.50 ERA Truist Park 7.8% 49.4% 92.1
11
Bryce Eldridge
 13.3% Luinder Avila RHP5.08 ERA Kauffman Stadium 8.2% 54.9% 92.5
12
Francisco Lindor
 12.7% Brandon Sproat RHP5.16 ERA American Family Field 7.1% 49.3% 92.1
13
Tommy Edman
 11.1% Zack Wheeler RHP2.13 ERA Citizens Bank Park 6.8% 41% 90.3
14
Royce Lewis
 11% Parker Messick LHP2.73 ERA Progressive Field 8.3% 42.3% 89.4
15
Jackson Merrill
 9.9% Reynaldo López RHP3.50 ERA Truist Park 6.6% 45.3% 89.5

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 21, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 21, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 21, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 21, 2026 is Kyle Schwarber (PHI) at a 24.1% model home run probability, facing Justin Wrobleski (2.69 ERA) at Citizens Bank Park. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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