Home/MLB Home Run Props/July 18, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 18

MLB Home Run Props
July 18, 2026

Data as of 05:04 ET, Jul 18 · 12 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 18, 2026 is Miguel Vargas (CWS) at a 26.2% model home run probability, facing Shane Bieber (7.64 ERA) at Rogers Centre.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Miguel Vargas
 26.2% Shane Bieber RHP7.64 ERA Rogers Centre 10.5% 47% 90.6
2
JJ Bleday
 25.4% Tomoyuki Sugano RHP4.80 ERA Coors Field 6.7% 42.2% 89
3
Ben Rice
 25.2% Emmet Sheehan RHP4.81 ERA Yankee Stadium 9.7% 47.6% 92.1
4
Alec Burleson
 22% Brandon Pfaadt RHP4.70 ERA Chase Field 8.8% 48.7% 91.7
5
Wilyer Abreu
 18% Ian Seymour LHP4.59 ERA Fenway Park 8.5% 41.5% 90.1
6
Samuel Basallo
 17.2% Spencer Arrighetti RHP4.50 ERA Daikin Park 8.6% 46.2% 91.5
7
Juan Soto
 14.5% Jesús Luzardo LHP3.51 ERA Citizens Bank Park 10.4% 48.7% 92.6
8
Jordan Walker
 13.5% Brandon Pfaadt RHP4.70 ERA Chase Field 9.4% 51.5% 94.2
9
Drake Baldwin
 12% MacKenzie Gore LHP4.63 ERA Truist Park 10% 51.2% 91.4
10
Francisco Lindor
 9.3% Jesús Luzardo LHP3.51 ERA Citizens Bank Park 6.3% 49.2% 91.9
11
Kyle Karros
 7.8% Rhett Lowder RHP4.91 ERA Coors Field 5.6% 43.9% 89.8
12
Lane Thomas
 6.2% Griffin Canning RHP6.47 ERA Kauffman Stadium 4.1% 41% 89.2

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 18, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 18, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 18, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 18, 2026 is Miguel Vargas (CWS) at a 26.2% model home run probability, facing Shane Bieber (7.64 ERA) at Rogers Centre. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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