Home/MLB Home Run Props/July 17, 2026
MLB · Power Edge Report · Jul 17

MLB Home Run Props
July 17, 2026

Data as of 11:46 ET, Jul 17 · 15 ranked targets

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 17, 2026 is Ben Rice (NYY) at a 27.1% model home run probability, facing Roki Sasaki (5.33 ERA) at Yankee Stadium.

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#HitterP(HR)Faces ParkBarrel%HardHit%Exit Velo
1
Ben Rice
 27.1% Roki Sasaki RHP5.33 ERA Yankee Stadium 9.7% 47.6% 92.1
2
Jordan Walker
 24% Merrill Kelly RHP5.38 ERA Chase Field 9.4% 51.5% 94.2
3
Esmerlyn Valdez
 22.9% Gavin Williams RHP3.81 ERA Progressive Field 16.2% 52.6% 92.1
4
Alec Burleson
 22.7% Merrill Kelly RHP5.38 ERA Chase Field 8.8% 48.7% 91.7
5
Junior Caminero
 17.3% Jake Bennett LHP2.64 ERA Fenway Park 9.2% 51.8% 93.2
6
Kazuma Okamoto
 16.2% Anthony Kay LHP4.23 ERA Rogers Centre 8.6% 47.5% 91.5
7
Jake Bauers
 16.1% Sandy Alcantara RHP3.99 ERA American Family Field 8.4% 53.1% 92.5
8
James Wood
 16.1% Gage Jump LHP3.51 ERA Sutter Health Park 12.1% 59.9% 95
9
Drake Baldwin
 15.9% Cal Quantrill RHP3.11 ERA Truist Park 10% 51.2% 91.4
10
Wilyer Abreu
 14.4% Griffin Jax RHP3.47 ERA Fenway Park 8.5% 41.5% 90.1
11
Chase DeLauter
 13.7% Jared Jones RHP4.37 ERA Progressive Field 5.1% 44.3% 90.9
12
Miguel Vargas
 11.8% Spencer Miles RHP2.85 ERA Rogers Centre 10.5% 47% 90.6
13
Samuel Basallo
 11.6% Peter Lambert RHP3.14 ERA Daikin Park 8.6% 46.2% 91.5
14
Kyle Stowers
 11.2% Logan Henderson RHP3.18 ERA American Family Field 6.9% 54.3% 91.8
15
Bryce Eldridge
 9.9% Bryce Miller RHP2.18 ERA T-Mobile Park 7.8% 54.4% 92.3

P(HR) is BetLogic's model home run probability for July 17, 2026, blending recent power and barrel rate against the opposing starter's HR vulnerability and ballpark factor. Live sportsbook odds load on the live board.

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How These Home Run Picks Are Built

BetLogic's HR model ranks every hitter on today's slate by a single home run probability. It weighs each batter's recent slugging and barrel rate against the opposing starter's home run rate by handedness, then adjusts for the ballpark's HR factor. Every page is frozen with that day's data so you can check back and see exactly what the model called.

Home Run Props FAQ · July 17, 2026

Who is the best MLB home run pick today, July 17, 2026?

BetLogic's top MLB home run prop target for July 17, 2026 is Ben Rice (NYY) at a 27.1% model home run probability, facing Roki Sasaki (5.33 ERA) at Yankee Stadium. The full ranked board updates daily, free, at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet.

How does BetLogic rank home run props?

BetLogic ranks each hitter by a model home run probability that weighs recent power output and barrel rate against the opposing pitcher's home run vulnerability by handedness and the ballpark's HR factor.

Are these MLB home run picks free?

Yes. BetLogic's HR board is free to view. The live board is at betlogic.ai/mlb/hr-sheet and a fresh dated page is published every day.

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